‘Data for Business’ is an effort of the Langley Chamber, in partnership with the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab, to bring our members reports, stats, and analysis on economic and business data to help inform business and investment decisions. Read our latest update below:
 

Canada’s economy showed modest momentum to start the year, with real GDP increasing by 0.1% in January following growth in December, and early estimates pointing to continued gains in February. Growth has been driven primarily by goods-producing sectors, while services activity remains flat and manufacturing continues to face headwinds.

Strength was seen in oil and gas, construction, retail, and finance, while manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation, and real estate activity declined in the month.

Overall, current trends suggest the economy is tracking toward moderate growth in the first quarter.

Key Findings

Mining, oil and gas extraction led monthly economic activity, accelerating 1.2% on the month. Oil and gas extraction expanded 1.6%, led by increased extraction in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. We should expect to see some windfall from higher oil prices due to the war conflict in the Middle East.

The manufacturing sector contracted by 1.4% in January following an increase in December. Durable goods sectors have been supressed for the last three of four months. The autos sector, which led the manufacturing decline in January, posted its largest decline since September 2021, due to longer-than-expected holiday shutdowns. Early signals from February surveys indicate a rebound in sector activity.

An acceleration in construction activity by 1.1% is encouraging with all subsectors expanding. Although the home resale market remains muted, recent momentum in residential construction and housing improvements could support further activity later in the year.

Retail trade expanded by 0.8% in January with some data suggesting that consumer spending will remain resilient consistent or grow slightly again in February.

Commentary:

“The Canadian economy is starting to show some signs of life early in 2026.

A rebound in oil and gas, along with solid momentum in residential construction, is giving us a few pockets of optimism. But it’s not a broad-based recovery with manufacturing at its weakest point in more than five years, driven by an auto sector under pressure.

Overall, growth is still uneven and likely to remain that way this year, especially with windfalls from higher oil prices beginning in February. Early indicators suggest first-quarter growth will come in close to the Bank of Canada’s forecast, reinforcing the view that interest rates will likely stay where they are for now.” – Andrew DiCapua, Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce