‘Data for Business’ is an effort of the Langley Chamber, in partnership with the Canadian Chamber, to bring our member reports, stats, and analysis on economic and business data to help inform business and investment decisions. Read our latest update below:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was up 0.2% in July, following essentially no change in June. Despite negative impacts from wildfires on transportation and warehousing and accommodation services, the services-producing industries grew 0.2% in July, driven in large part by increases in the retail trade sector, the public sector and the finance and insurance sector. Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1%, with the utilities and manufacturing sectors contributing the most to growth within this aggregate. Overall, 13 of 20 sectors expanded in July. 

The consumer has kept economic activity afloat, but an adjustment is due in the Fall as population growth slows, and per person consumption remains constrained. 

Sectoral Review:

The retail trade sector (+1.0%) was the largest contributor to overall growth in July, recording a second consecutive increase and the sector's largest monthly growth rate in a year and a half. In BC, we matched the national growth rate with also a 1% increase.   The largest increase in retail sales in July was observed at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.2%). Higher sales at new car dealers (+2.3%) led the increase, followed by other motor vehicle dealers (+5.6%)

The manufacturing sector grew 0.3% in July, partially offsetting the decline recorded in June. Non-durable goods manufacturing (+1.3%) was the main source of the growth in July, more than offsetting the 0.7% decline in durable goods manufacturing.  Chemical manufacturing was up 4.1% and Food Manufacturing increased 1.2%. 

The construction sector continues to face challenges, declining 0.4% in July, and was the largest detractor for the month. Non-residential building construction slowed in July (-1.7%) as industrial demand declines for another month.

Economic Commentary

The advanced estimate for real GDP in August is essentially flat.  Increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing. This puts the third quarter on track to grow by merely 1% annualized, which is much lower than the Bank of Canada’s Q3 forecast of 2.8%. The Bank has a few more releases to assess whether economic activity is faltering, including the September Labour Force Survey and inflation release. July’s GDP points to slowing momentum and increased risks of the rail stoppage and wildfires impacting August GDP.

"No summertime blues for the Canadian economy, but the weather is getting cooler. While spending is propping up the economy for now, slowing population growth will soon put a damper on things. With third-quarter growth crawling at just 1%—well under the Bank’s forecast—they may be pushed to slash rates more aggressively."  - Andrew DiCapua, Senior Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce