Data for Business: March Retail Data Points to Cautious Consumers
Data for Business: March Retail Data Points to Cautious Consumers
‘Data for Business’ is an effort of the Langley Chamber, in partnership with the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab, to bring our members reports, stats, and analysis on economic and business data to help inform business and investment decisions. Read our latest update below:
Retail sales posted a headline gain in March, but the details point to a more cautious consumer picture beneath the surface. Overall sales were up 0.9%, driven largely by higher spending at gasoline stations as fuel prices rose sharply, while core retail sales edged down 0.1% and sales volumes fell 0.7%.
In plain terms, consumers spent more in dollar terms, but not necessarily because they were broadly buying more — suggesting the March increase was driven more by price pressure than stronger underlying demand.
That said, retail sales were up 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, marking a seventh consecutive quarterly increase, while volumes rose 1.2%, suggesting goods consumption should still contribute to first-quarter GDP.
For Langley businesses, the data points to a retail environment that is still active, but uneven, with households remaining cautious and growth concentrated in a few categories rather than broad-based consumer strength.
Key Takeaways
- Overall performance: Retail sales posted another strong month of nominal sales, growing 0.9% in March. This was largely concentrated in spending at gasoline stations and fuel vendors on higher gasoline prices. Core retail sales were down 0.1%. March retail volumes point to a weak month, down 0.7% in March.
- The headline gain was driven by gasoline stations and fuel vendors, where sales jumped 12.4% in March as higher gasoline prices were felt across the country. Food and beverage retailers also posted a modest gain of 0.5%.
- In volume terms, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors fell 1.9%, meaning households paid more but bought less fuel. Motor vehicle and parts dealers fell 0.5%. Core retail sales edged lower as building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers fell 2.9%, and general merchandise retailers declined 0.5%. This suggests the March gain was more about price pressure than stronger underlying demand.
- Core retail sales edged down 0.1% in March after two consecutive monthly gains. Core spending is a better read on underlying household demand. The decline suggests consumers are not broadly accelerating goods purchases. That said, retail sales were up 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, marking a seventh consecutive quarterly increase. In volume terms, sales rose 1.2%, suggesting goods consumption should contribute to first quarter GDP after a weak end to 2025.
- Sales increased in nine provinces in March. Ontario posted the largest gain, rising 1.4%. Alberta sales increased 2.6%. Quebec was the only province to decline, down 0.8%.
Commentary:
“Canadian consumers showed some resilience in the first quarter, and spending appears set to support economic growth—a reversal from the last quarter. While March’s gains were driven almost entirely by higher prices, our spending tracker suggests spending volumes continued to expand in April in line with Statistics Canada estimates. The key question is how long this resilience can last as higher gasoline prices increasingly show up in household budgets. In other words, how long before Canadian consumers start to run out of gas?”
- Andrew DiCapua, Principal Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce
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