Skip to content
Login
Email
604-371-3770
Facebook Icon Twitter Icon LinkedIn Icon Instagram Icon

Data for Business: Retail Sales Stall in December

Data for Business: Retail Sales Stall in December

Data for Business: Retail Sales Stall in December

‘Data for Business’ is an effort of the Langley Chamber, in partnership with the Canadian Chamber’s Business Data Lab, to bring our members reports, stats, and analysis on economic and business data to help inform business and investment decisions. Read our latest update below:

Canada’s retail sector ended 2025 on a softer note, with December sales slipping as consumers pulled back on big-ticket purchases despite continued spending in everyday categories. After a solid 2025 overall with retail sales up 4.0% nominally and 2.3% in real terms – momentum faded into year-end. The latest data suggests Canadians remain resilient but increasingly cautious, signalling an economy that is stabilizing into a slower, more selective pace of consumption heading into 2026.

Key Takeaways

  • Overall performance: Retail sales fell 0.4% m/m to $70.0B in December, with declines in three of nine subsectors. Core sales (ex-autos + gas) fell 0.3%, while real (volume) sales were flat (0.0%). Over Q4, nominal sales rose 0.1%, but real sales fell 0.3%, implying goods consumption likely weighed modestly on Q4 GDP.
  • Strengths: Everyday categories held up: general merchandise +0.2%, health & personal care +0.4%, and sporting goods/miscellaneous +1.0%. Gas stations rose +2.8% (and +4.5% in volume). E-commerce +3.6% to $4.3B, lifting the online share to 6.1% of total retail – suggesting holiday demand persisted, but was more selective.
  • Weakness: Big-ticket, rate-sensitive categories drove the pullback: autos -1.6% (new cars -1.8%, second straight decline), building materials -4.0%, and furniture/electronics/appliances -1.7% (second straight decline). Notably, autos led 2025 growth (motor vehicles +4.7%; new cars +3.7%), so the year-end dip reads as cooling after earlier strength, not a broad consumer breakdown. The softness across these higher-cost categories reflects growing caution around larger purchases.
  • Regional trends: Sales fell in seven provinces, led by Alberta (-2.1%). Ontario -0.2% (Toronto +0.5%). Quebec +0.6% (Montréal -0.8%). The pattern looks sector-driven (autos/durables) rather than widespread regional weakness. The December slowdown appears sector-driven rather than geographically broad-based, reinforcing that demand is moderating selectively rather than collapsing nationwide.
  • Advance estimate: StatCan’s advance estimate points to a +1.5% rise in January (early, subject to revision; based on 59.8% response rate). That hints December may be a pause rather than the start of a deeper pullback.

Commentary:

"December is usually when Canadians open their wallets. Between holiday shopping, Boxing Day deals and other big-ticket splurges, you’d expect retail sales to get a noticeable lift. Instead, sales fell 0.4%.

 Autos led the pullback, but softness across other big-ticket categories suggests consumers hit the brakes at year-end rather than accelerating into the New Year. Real retail volumes were flat, suggesting that goods demand will likely weigh on fourth-quarter consumption growth. That softer finish contrasts with an otherwise solid 2025, with retail sales up 4% in nominal terms and 2.3% after inflation. But the momentum faded through the fall.  

Canadians are still spending, but they are becoming more cautious and selective, especially on big, rate-sensitive purchases. Trade has offered some late-year support, but the real story is that domestic demand is shifting into a lower gear as we head into 2026.”   - Jasleen Trehan, Economist, Canadian Chamber of Commerce